: Marco Bounce - The Compass daily
Late and a whole lot 'botched. Gianandrea Gaiani The analyst defines the decision taken last night by the UN Security Council to establish a "no fly zone" over the skies of Libya in flames. For Gaiani - expert strategy and scholar of the theaters of war, editor of Defence Analysis monthly web, working with various newspapers - the "solution" would then come to games finished. Because if France announces air raid in the next few hours, saying the United States argue that to set up the interdiction of the airspace necessary to Tripoli Libyan forces no less than a week. "But if the" no fly zone "was established in summer now," says Gaiani, "just say ten days ago, things would have been very different."
What?
more credible ...
more credible ...
now are not?
much less. First, the "no fly zone" is likely to be ineffective in practice and in addition, its establishment is only now revealed to be an obvious excuse.
much less. First, the "no fly zone" is likely to be ineffective in practice and in addition, its establishment is only now revealed to be an obvious excuse.
For what?
To cover the enormous embarrassment that the West is trying Muammar Gaddafi in the face: the West can not afford the luxury of pretending nothing with Saddam in recent weeks after treated as the worst criminals in history. If Gaddafi had sfangarla and stay in power, what would the West? Here is the need of an intervention that put him on the ropes.
To cover the enormous embarrassment that the West is trying Muammar Gaddafi in the face: the West can not afford the luxury of pretending nothing with Saddam in recent weeks after treated as the worst criminals in history. If Gaddafi had sfangarla and stay in power, what would the West? Here is the need of an intervention that put him on the ropes.
will actually put it on the ropes?
The establishment of a "no fly zone" is already a formal act of pre-war ...
The establishment of a "no fly zone" is already a formal act of pre-war ...
Then Gaddafi is over ...
Who knows ... But that fact that the "no fly zone" is already pre-war per se disqualification airspace Libyan Libyan aviation is not able to stop the military offensive of Gaddafi. In Bosnia the "no fly zone" did not stop the Serbs from committing acts of genocide, by means of land consumed. In Iraq the same thing happened. The only strategy that could achieve would be to militarily intervene with ground troops, but this is the only explicitly prohibited by the resolution adopted last night ... And anyway, now that the car went away west, may not serve to anything. Gaddafi may arriving in Benghazi, a stronghold of the rebel forces, in a very short time and then - as indeed seems to have already announced - to stop the army, leaving the normalization deal the police. A clever strategy and winning at the time already taken by British troops in Basra, in Iraq, displaced civilians and snack, then track down the armed enemies one by one, house by house. This reduced to a minimum casualties in Iraq and could also take down the number in Benghazi, to the benefit - even in pictures - Gaddafi ...
Who knows ... But that fact that the "no fly zone" is already pre-war per se disqualification airspace Libyan Libyan aviation is not able to stop the military offensive of Gaddafi. In Bosnia the "no fly zone" did not stop the Serbs from committing acts of genocide, by means of land consumed. In Iraq the same thing happened. The only strategy that could achieve would be to militarily intervene with ground troops, but this is the only explicitly prohibited by the resolution adopted last night ... And anyway, now that the car went away west, may not serve to anything. Gaddafi may arriving in Benghazi, a stronghold of the rebel forces, in a very short time and then - as indeed seems to have already announced - to stop the army, leaving the normalization deal the police. A clever strategy and winning at the time already taken by British troops in Basra, in Iraq, displaced civilians and snack, then track down the armed enemies one by one, house by house. This reduced to a minimum casualties in Iraq and could also take down the number in Benghazi, to the benefit - even in pictures - Gaddafi ...
But, apart from Benghazi, Gaddafi is killing by the week Libyan people ...
Look, local medical sources, that is not the government of Tripoli, but the staff on the front lines in hospitals, about a total, since the riots, about 500 deaths. Which are not few, but which do not constitute "genocide," figures that do not make us more sympathetic Gaddafi, but which do not justify the rend their garments by those Western countries that now - later - crying and incline - more than some of others - for immediate military action ...
Look, local medical sources, that is not the government of Tripoli, but the staff on the front lines in hospitals, about a total, since the riots, about 500 deaths. Which are not few, but which do not constitute "genocide," figures that do not make us more sympathetic Gaddafi, but which do not justify the rend their garments by those Western countries that now - later - crying and incline - more than some of others - for immediate military action ...
you mean France?
France, of course: the country that is pushing for more military intervention. Then But even Britain and the United States, for reasons of course oil. These powers, even France in the lead, hoping to obtain benefits from the regime change, perhaps by removing some of its contracts to Italy. Especially now that they can no longer support the regime in Tripoli, however, considered an ally until yesterday. For if the West - says: NATO - to intervene militarily now pass for the real winner. From there a way to get privileged access to energy sources would be a snap. Moreover, the totally unexpected military efficiency of the rebels being recorded - if the news was confirmed - in Libya could now be thinking of some Western aid already active ongoing albeit covertly. The "no fly zone" and will follow what would become more so just a cover for existing operations.
France, of course: the country that is pushing for more military intervention. Then But even Britain and the United States, for reasons of course oil. These powers, even France in the lead, hoping to obtain benefits from the regime change, perhaps by removing some of its contracts to Italy. Especially now that they can no longer support the regime in Tripoli, however, considered an ally until yesterday. For if the West - says: NATO - to intervene militarily now pass for the real winner. From there a way to get privileged access to energy sources would be a snap. Moreover, the totally unexpected military efficiency of the rebels being recorded - if the news was confirmed - in Libya could now be thinking of some Western aid already active ongoing albeit covertly. The "no fly zone" and will follow what would become more so just a cover for existing operations.
at what point in all this is Italy?
Italy is linked to Libya by a treaty of friendship. Not a any Libyan government, but the Libyan state as such (although in this case the government has signed the treaty with Rome rather than government, however, is still in office in Tripoli). In itself that treaty Italy would already violating it, on the other hand, Italy is also part of NATO in a non- less restrictive ... But I think, realistically, that in the event of a military operation in NATO air support of Italy will provide supervision to the "no fly zone", using the foundations of Trapani and Sigonella, the most useful in military structures of Lampedusa and Pantelleria. For recovery operations in cases of necessity.
Italy is linked to Libya by a treaty of friendship. Not a any Libyan government, but the Libyan state as such (although in this case the government has signed the treaty with Rome rather than government, however, is still in office in Tripoli). In itself that treaty Italy would already violating it, on the other hand, Italy is also part of NATO in a non- less restrictive ... But I think, realistically, that in the event of a military operation in NATO air support of Italy will provide supervision to the "no fly zone", using the foundations of Trapani and Sigonella, the most useful in military structures of Lampedusa and Pantelleria. For recovery operations in cases of necessity.
One last question. How do you see the whole scenario of the "bread riots" in the Middle East and North Africa?
clear focus has been on the case of Libya, and rightly so. But this confirms that it is impossible to generalize the situation area of \u200b\u200ball countries affected by the riots, insurrections, riots. What unites the various "streets" Arabic is the dissatisfaction than non-democratic regimes, the absurd inflation of basic necessities, the asymmetric division (Libya docet ) of the proceeds from the first source of wealth of that community, the oil.
said that, however, each of those countries has contexts, histories, mechanisms, cultures and situations. Unable to flatten everything indistinct. There are bread riots, rebellions against gerontocracy, huge disagreements between Shiites and Sunnis, separatist pressures, and so on. Things often overlap and add up, but this complicates the facilities. The focus is now the Arabian Peninsula. There, Saudi Arabia has decided to scratch his own because no one trusts that the West has downloaded so suddenly that he was a key ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. Riyadh is now thinking of itself as the regional gendarme order and shows it factually. And one thing remains true: Unique in September after the only Western strategy in the field that was designed, developed and carried forward the U.S. President George W. Bush jr. and the neoconservatives. And that is the need to enter into a closed world militarily and always devoid of democracy which is Islamic, forcing the doors. A strategy that has its setbacks of the coin, its limits and even his hesitation, but the only fielded first and second, that, however, is bringing some results in Iraq, even in Afghanistan and - locally - in other areas of that world.
clear focus has been on the case of Libya, and rightly so. But this confirms that it is impossible to generalize the situation area of \u200b\u200ball countries affected by the riots, insurrections, riots. What unites the various "streets" Arabic is the dissatisfaction than non-democratic regimes, the absurd inflation of basic necessities, the asymmetric division (Libya docet ) of the proceeds from the first source of wealth of that community, the oil.
said that, however, each of those countries has contexts, histories, mechanisms, cultures and situations. Unable to flatten everything indistinct. There are bread riots, rebellions against gerontocracy, huge disagreements between Shiites and Sunnis, separatist pressures, and so on. Things often overlap and add up, but this complicates the facilities. The focus is now the Arabian Peninsula. There, Saudi Arabia has decided to scratch his own because no one trusts that the West has downloaded so suddenly that he was a key ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. Riyadh is now thinking of itself as the regional gendarme order and shows it factually. And one thing remains true: Unique in September after the only Western strategy in the field that was designed, developed and carried forward the U.S. President George W. Bush jr. and the neoconservatives. And that is the need to enter into a closed world militarily and always devoid of democracy which is Islamic, forcing the doors. A strategy that has its setbacks of the coin, its limits and even his hesitation, but the only fielded first and second, that, however, is bringing some results in Iraq, even in Afghanistan and - locally - in other areas of that world.
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